Readers gain a single, structured view of where Hurricane Isaias is most likely to produce tropical-storm-force, 50-kt, and hurricane-force winds over the next five days. NHC Advisory 12, issued at 1500 UTC on Friday, October 9, 2026, places the center near latitude 27.7 north, longitude 87.3 west, with maximum sustained winds near 105 kt (120 mph). The cumulative probability tables below show the chance of sustained winds reaching 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt at selected coastal and inland locations from Florida through Alabama.
Where Isaias Stands on October 9, 2026
The 1500 UTC advisory fixes the center at 27.7N 87.3W. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt, with gusts implied by the 120 mph reading on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The advisory text labels the system simply as Hurricane Isaias, storm identifier AL092026.
Wind speed probabilities are reported in two ways for each forecast hour. The onset probability (OP) is the chance the event begins in that individual period. The cumulative probability (CP) is the chance the event has happened at any point from 12Z Friday through the listed forecast hour. Cells marked X indicate probabilities below 1 percent.
How to Read the Probability Table
Each location carries three rows: 34 kt (tropical-storm-force, 39 mph), 50 kt (58 mph), and 64 kt (hurricane-force, 74 mph). 34-kt and 50-kt values appear when the 5-day cumulative probability reaches at least 3 percent. 64-kt values appear only when the 5-day cumulative probability reaches at least 1 percent. The forecast window runs from 12Z Friday to 12Z Wednesday at 12-hour resolution through the first 48 hours, then at 24-hour resolution through 120 hours.
Cumulative Probability Highlights for Selected Locations
The numbers below are the highest cumulative probability recorded for each location across the five-day window, read directly from the advisory table.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
- Tallahassee FL: 34 kt cumulative probability reaches 5 percent within the first 12 hours, then holds at 5 percent through 120 hours.
- St. Marks FL: 34 kt cumulative probability reaches 4 percent in the first 12 hours and holds steady.
- Apalachicola: 34 kt cumulative probability reaches 79 percent in the first 12 hours.
- Panama City FL: 34 kt cumulative probability reaches 99 percent in the first 12 hours. 50 kt cumulative reaches 23 percent by 24 hours. 64 kt cumulative reaches 3 percent by 24 hours.
- Destin Executive Airport: 34 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent by 12 hours. 50 kt cumulative climbs to 87 percent by 24 hours. 64 kt cumulative reaches 34 percent by 24 hours.
- Whiting Field FL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent by 12 hours. 50 kt cumulative reaches 88 percent by 24 hours. 64 kt cumulative reaches 22 percent by 24 hours.
- Pensacola FL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent by 12 hours. 50 kt cumulative reaches 86 percent by 24 hours. 64 kt cumulative reaches 24 percent by 24 hours.
Alabama and Inland Points
- Dothan AL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 76 percent by 24 hours.
- Montgomery AL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 88 percent by 36 hours. 50 kt cumulative reaches 7 percent by 36 hours.
- Birmingham AL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 55 percent by 36 hours.
- Columbus GA: 34 kt cumulative reaches 8 percent by 24 hours.
- Mobile AL: 34 kt cumulative reaches 79 percent by 24 hours. 50 kt cumulative peaks at 4 percent in the same window.
- Gulfport MS: 34 kt cumulative reaches 8 percent by 24 hours.
Offshore Grid Points
- GFAM 290N 850W: 34 kt cumulative reaches 67 percent by 12 hours.
- GFAM 290N 870W: 34 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent, 50 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent, and 64 kt cumulative reaches 91 percent, all within the first 12 hours. This offshore point sits closest to the forecast track and shows the strongest wind risk in the table.
- GFAM 280N 890W: 34 kt cumulative reaches 99 percent by 12 hours.
Time Zones Referenced in the Advisory
The advisory footer lists four time conversions from the Z (Coordinated Universal Time) stamp. Atlantic Standard Time subtracts 4 hours. Eastern Daylight Time subtracts 4 hours. Central Daylight Time subtracts 5 hours. Forecasters and emergency managers use these offsets to align the UTC issue time with local clocks along the Gulf Coast.
What the Probability Curves Imply
Cumulative probabilities rising in the first 24 hours and then flattening at X(99) or close to it signal that the wind threshold is expected to be crossed early, with little additional uncertainty in later periods. Destin Executive Airport, Whiting Field, Pensacola, Panama City, and the Gulf of Mexico grid point 290N 870W all show this pattern at the 34-kt threshold. The 50-kt and 64-kt thresholds are confined to the first 24 hours at the same coastal sites, which means the strongest winds arrive with the initial landfall window rather than building over a second day. Inland Alabama sites (Montgomery, Birmingham, Dothan) peak at the 34-kt threshold between 24 and 36 hours, consistent with the storm’s inland progression after landfall.
Local Products and Next Steps
The advisory package routes users to U.S. watch and warning local products issued by NWS forecast offices, plus a Spanish-language public advisory (Aviso Publico) and discussion (Discusión). These companion products translate the probability table into specific county-by-county watch and warning decisions, which is the layer property owners and emergency managers act on once a watch or warning is posted.
FAQ
Where was Hurricane Isaias located at 1500 UTC on October 9, 2026?
NHC Advisory 12 placed the center near latitude 27.7 north, longitude 87.3 west, with maximum sustained winds near 105 kt (120 mph).
Which location in the advisory shows the highest 64-kt wind probability?
The offshore grid point GFAM 290N 870W, with a 5-day cumulative probability of 91 percent for 64 kt within the first 12 hours.
When did the 34-kt cumulative probability peak at Destin Executive Airport?
The 34-kt cumulative probability reached 99 percent by 12 hours from the 1500 UTC advisory, and stayed at 99 percent through the 120-hour forecast.
Related coverage
This article summarizes reporting from nhc.noaa.gov.